>> Narrator: northwest NOW is supported in part by viewers like you.

Thank you.

>> Mr. Layson: Why do we love talking about and tracking the weather so very much?

It's the biggest ratings getter on local newscast, and thousands of people are backyard meteorologists and storm watchers.

The weather is one of the few things I can think of that we all have in common, so what's not to like about it heading into Earth Day 2021?

Well, weather is a function of the larger discussion of climate, and that's where things start breaking down.

But that's not going to stop us from talking to one of the most followed climate and weather watchers in the Pacific Northwest.

Cliff Mass is our guest next on northwest NOW.

[ Music ] Man's role in climate change is settled science.

Yes, there are natural changes, too, but even the most basic reading of the data tells us what a significant impact the Industrial Age has had on our climate, either in a new direction or helping it race faster into a natural cycle with unnatural looking data driving it.

Either way, some of the more speculative predictions about where we might be heading include some pretty darn dire scenarios.

Less controversial, however, is the daily or weekly weather patterns we all experience.

Nothing animates social media like a warm sunny day here in Western Washington or causes us to lose our collective minds like a couple of inches of snow.

One of the people who's been following the trends of both climate and weather is Cliff Mass, whose primary platform right now is his blog.

His world started getting a little controversial a few years ago when he was challenged for his views on climate, which is certainly his area of expertise.

Things took a turn for the worst, though, when he started drifting into other forms of commentary.

And if you want to know more about that, you can ask Google and you'll be up to speed.

For us right now, though, Cliff Mass is all about the weather and his views on climate.

Cliff, thanks so much for coming to northwest NOW.

Great to have a conversation about the weather and climate and how those two relate, but let's get started with a little bio.

I worked on the East Coast for a while, so I can hear it from time to time in you.

But talk to me a little bit about where you were raised and how did you get educated and what got you to University of Washington?

>> Mr. Mass: Sure.

Well, I'm from Long Island, originally, you know, out there about 25 miles out from New York City.

And so I went to Cornell University for my bachelor's degree in physics.

And there I worked with Carl Sagan on simulating the Martian atmosphere.

And he also had a big effect on me in terms of public interactions, things like that.

Then I got my PhD here at the University of Washington, the Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

So I got my degree.

I actually simulated African waves, disturbances that become hurricanes.

So that's -- that was my PhD thesis.

Then I went to University of Maryland for three years, and then I had an opportunity to return to the department.

And so I've been here ever since.

>> Mr. Layson: I kind of like people's origin stories who are doing the thing they kind of wanted to do even when they were young.

I'm doing that.

We're a little weird in that way.

Talk to me about your origin story.

What got you interested in weather, and at what age did you know this was my thing?

>> Mr. Mass: Well, from a very young age, I loved severe weather.

So if it rained hard, snowed hard, I love that kind of stuff.

I had a scientific bent, and it was between going into astronomy or going into meteorology.

And I made the decision to go to meteorology because it has a little bit more application for people.

The thing I think I really loved was the fact that mathematics could describe the atmosphere, how we could predict the atmosphere by solving equations on computers.

So that that was always something that really intrigued me.

And then, you know, coming here to the northwest, I really fell in love with meteorology here, the complexity of the weather created by the terrain and by the land water contrasts, it's just marvelous.

>> Mr. Layson: Why are Americans -- I would say the British are this way too.

But why are Americans so weather obsessed?

You know, I think meteorology and climatology is one of the few sciences where you have legitimate fans.

I mean, the guy working in the biology lab somewhere, his work's important.

I'm not minimizing it.

But they don't have fans.

They don't have fans setting up little biological labs in their garages.

Meteorologists do.

>> Mr. Mass: That's right.

I think in some ways meteorology is like a naturalistic religion.

I think people sense that there's a power greater than them.

They can't control when there's strong winds or heavy rain or whatever.

So I think there's a religious aspect to it.

Also, weather controls their lives in very intimate ways, from what kind of recreation they can do to, you know, whether they're being threatened by severe weather like hurricanes or severe storms.

So I think on a number of levels it's very, very basic to our souls, the meteorological side of things.

>> Mr. Layson: When you talk to people who aren't Washingtonians and you talk to them about the weather in Washington, I'm sure you get this, oh, it rains up there all the time.

That's definitely our reputation.

But how do you technically describe our weather in Western Washington?

I mean, we have banana belts, too.

So what is kind of your Weather 101 lecture on the weather of Western Washington?

>> Mr. Mass: Sure.

Well, strangely enough, we have what is called a Mediterranean climate.

I can see from your face that seems strange.

But we have very wet winter, but we have a very dry summer.

Our summers are some of the driest in the whole United States.

And but our winters concentrate that rain in the short period from November through February.

Most of that's where most of it falls.

So we really have two different weather regimes, different times of the year.

And the other major thing is that we're very mild here, and that's because of the Pacific Ocean, which really prevents us from getting very warm and from getting very cold.

>> Mr. Layson: I am sure there are people who want me to ask you this question because we're all so frustrated by it.

Every individual you talk to, of course, is an expert in driving in the snow and managing the snow.

My question for you is, is the snow different here?

Or are people just completely incompetent in Western Washington when it comes to driving in it and management?

What's your take on it?

>> Mr. Mass: Well, you know, the snow is different here.

And it's more difficult in some ways.

We have a lot of hills, which is an issue right away when you have snow on the roadway surfaces.

But we tend to develop an ice layer during the wintertime when we get snow because our ground is generally above freezing.

So the snow typically falls on the ground.

It starts melting.

And then if cold air comes in afterwards, we get this ice layer.

That doesn't happen back in the eastern United States where the ground is cold.

And so the snow falls, it doesn't melt and so it's easy to get rid of.

So in some ways, we have a more difficult situation when it snows than a lot of other places.

>> Mr. Layson: All right.

We'll give folks a little break, then.

A little grace there.

Here is -- get into this conversation about climate.

One of the things that drives me crazy on social media is, you know, people put a -- give you a picture of two inches of snow on their banister somewhere in King County and say, well, guess there's your global warming for you.

Would you please try to explain people the difference between weather and climate and set a few folks straight on that?

>> Mr. Mass: Right.

Well, it's not too hard.

You know, weather is what's happening right now.

It's that storm that's coming today or, you know, what's going on in the short period.

Climate is an average over an extended period of time of weather.

Typically, we use 30 years as our definition of the current climate.

But climate is a long-term mean or average of what happens weather-wise over a period of hours or days.

>> Mr. Layson: So is it fair to say climate is the big curve, and then weather is the little squiggles within that curve?

>> Mr. Mass: Right.

I mean, climate changes very slowly, while weather, that's what we're having instantaneously.

>> Mr. Layson: Here's the big one for you.

Where are you -- I want to give you a chance.

Where are you on climate change and, layered on top of that, man-caused climate change?

>> Mr. Mass: Sure.

Well, that's not very hard, really.

I mean, first, even without mankind's influence, climate changes.

That's for sure.

There's certain natural variabilities.

For instance, here in the Northwest, there's something called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that our climate, our weather varies over 30 to 50 years.

And then we have something called El Nino and La Nina, which is sort of a cycle of three to seven years.

So there are certainly natural climate variations.

But then there's global warming due to what we're doing, and that is putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

And so the best science -- and I do this science.

I've written papers on this subject.

The best science is that the greenhouse gases that we're putting in the atmosphere, like CO2, is causing the Earth to warm.

And, in fact, most of the warming is ahead of us; that, you know, we've had a little bit of it, but that's going to increase substantially during the rest of the century.

So global warming is certainly an issue.

A big question is, how much of what we're seeing now is due to global warming due to us?

That's an interesting question.

And exactly what will things be like at the end of the century?

So those are other interesting climate questions.

>> Mr. Layson: An area you have been criticized is that you haven't been some might argue hysterical enough about climate change and about some of the dire consequences that some allege are lying before us.

How do you view that?

How do you view the extremes?

You know, there -- I guess one extreme is, we can do whatever we want.

This is really no big deal versus the end of the world is coming.

What's your -- what's your take on that, and what's your guidance for people?

>> Mr. Mass: Well, my take is I need to tell people the truth.

I need to tell people what the best science is telling us.

Some people feel that we should hyper exaggerate climate change to get people to do the right thing, and I don't buy that.

I think is it essential not to cry wolf, to talk about the situation.

It's serious enough from what we know right now and not to hyper exaggerate or say that there's going to be an existential threat to the existence of mankind during the next several decades, that kind of thing.

I think that's wrong.

I think we have to tell people the truth about the best science.

>> Mr. Layson: Have your views evolved over time as more data has come in?

You know, the University of Washington is extensively involved in ice core sampling and all kinds of things.

Have you been of a mind that you've seen your views evolve in this area?

Talk a little bit about your process.

>> Mr. Mass: Well, things are always evolving because the science is getting better.

For instance, I'm a modeler.

I do simulations of weather and climate.

And so those simulations are changing as we have better physics.

The models get better.

Also, it's becoming clear that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is not going to go up quite as fast as some people were worried about.

And so that mitigates things a little bit.

So the answers or at least what we estimate is going to happen changes over time.

But it's the same basic scientific approach: getting data, using models, trying to understand uncertainty and then communicate that uncertainty.

>> Mr. Layson: Here's a little bit of a philosophical question.

If forced to make an error, would we rather make an error where we overestimate or underestimate the grievous impacts of climate change?

In other words, won't the ultimate proof of bad effects only come after it's too late?

>> Mr. Mass: Well, I think we have to shoot for giving people what we think is the most probable situation, that's what we're going to experience, and what the uncertainties are.

It's not the role of a scientist like myself to exaggerate things to get them to do the right -- supposedly the right thing.

That is not my role.

My role is to provide the best information.

Society needs to make that decision, whether they want to err on being a little bit on the safe side.

Well, look at what we do with bridges, right?

We over design bridges, right, because we want to be sure in case that, you know, extra heavy truck goes over, whatever, or that extra strong storm comes, right?

So society can make that decision.

But my job is to give society the best information.

>> Mr. Layson: What does your gut tell you?

Does your gut say, Listen.

We need to crank back on the CO2 production, deforestation; we need -- mankind needs to step up its game a little bit here because, even though I'm not seeing a dire consequences, an existential threat, but I've seen ahead, ain't all that good.

Are you there, or are you more think this will take care of itself?

How do you -- how would you characterize your views of what we need to be doing?

>> Mr. Mass: Well, I'm extremely optimistic, quite frankly.

I think -- this is a technical problem.

We have too much of a certain gas in the atmosphere.

And I think we're going to solve this technically.

For instance, we need to use nuclear power more, both fission and fusion.

That could provide the energy sources that we need.

And then, in addition to that, we can use renewables more electric cars more.

And if we have energy, then we can do something called sequestration, take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

So, quite frankly, I think this is a very solvable problem.

I think people are too worried about it.

I think we will solve this global warming problem.

The real problem is not global warming.

It's sustainability.

You know, how mankind will be able to sustain itself indefinitely on this planet, that's the real question.

Global warming is a technical problem that we're going to solve like -- I bet you we'll solve that in the next 20, 30 years.

>> Mr. Layson: You mentioned this.

You touched on this in your last answer, and I want to draw you out on it a little more.

Talking about climate anxiety, do you -- do you think people are anxious?

Is this something you worry about?

Do you talk to people who are so fearful.

I've talked about -- you know, they're not sure they want to have kids.

They're not sure they want to send their kids to college because they have climate anxiety.

What's your thought about that?

Is it real, and is it a concern of yours?

>> Mr. Mass: Oh, it's definitely real, and I think it's terrible.

And I think that is the danger of exaggeration.

The oldest talk of existential threats and mankind, things are terrible, mankind's going to end or something in the next 30, 50 years, that really has severe psychological effects for some of the most vulnerable people.

Also has political impacts.

When you go over the top like that, you turn off whole groups to the whole problem.

So I think exaggeration, actually, is very, very negative in its effects.

And so that's why I try not to go there.

>> Mr. Layson: When we look at climate change and what is going on, what do you see as being the major impacts on Western Washington?

You know, sea level rise is discussed.

I know wildfire has been something that's discussed that you've bristled, pushed back a little bit on in terms of cause and effect there.

Talk a little bit about what your views are of the impact on Western Washington specifically here in our area.

>> Mr. Mass: Sure.

We're very lucky to be where we are because global warming will be slower and weaker here than in most places.

And the reason is very clear.

We're downstream of this gigantic ocean, which is very slow to warm up.

So we're in a very fortunate position.

Now, here in Western Washington, you know, our precipitation will be probably even a little bit heavier in the global warming, so we'll still have plenty of water.

Sea level rise, well, a few places will be affected.

But, of course, you know, most of our land is way above sea level.

You know, we're actually in pretty good shape there.

This is not Florida.

Probably the biggest effect is snowpack.

The snowpack will be less, and so we'll have less water availability later in the summer.

While there are solutions to that and includes bigger reservoirs to store water, the water will be there.

We just have to store it.

So I think there are things we can do in adaptation.

Talking about wildfires, my take on it -- and I have research grants on this -- in this area is that we need to fix our forests.

That's what we need to do, that our forests have been mismanaged, we suppress fires.

We have to bring prescribed burns back, thin the forests.

And if we do that, I think we can keep that under control as well.

So I think adaptation for climate change is extremely important, and we have to give it more attention.

>> Mr. Layson: One of the areas that's come up for discussion is increased wildfire in Western Washington.

You know, fortunately, over the years, you know, there are wildfires in Western Washington.

But it really isn't, you know, a thing here, per se.

Could that change under this regime?

>> Mr. Mass: Well, that's uncertain.

In fact, that's something I'm directly working on.

Almost all of the major fires on the west side of the Cascades are due to strong easterly winds.

That's a crucial aspect, winds from the east.

And that was true of the big fires in Oregon last year.

It appears that these easterly winds will weaken under global warming.

Global warming will -- warming will be greater in the interior of the continent, that'll cause the pressure to fall preferentially in the interior of the continent, and that's going to work against getting easterly wind.

So it's really not clear what the implications of global warming will be for Western Washington at this point.

>> Mr. Layson: When you look at record temperatures year after year, record wildfire activity year after year, which you place some and I think rightfully so on forest management, doesn't the aggregate of that, though, have to make us -- give us some pause about possibly the future and about serious impacts from climate change?

I'm just -- I guess I'm wondering how much you -- how much of this unusual activity you ascribe to that?

Do you believe it's cyclical?

What's your take on that?

>> Mr. Mass: Well, global warming due to mankind is real.

I mean, the planet is warming.

Some of that is due to us.

There's no doubt about that.

And so the question is, what do you do about it?

First, you do research like I'm doing to figure out exactly what we expect is going to happen.

We do what we can for adaptation.

And there's a tremendous amount we can do to adapt ourselves so the implications are not as serious.

And then we do what we can to take care of the global warming problem.

And that that includes new energy sources, learning how to take CO2 out of the atmosphere, things like that.

So I mean, this is a -- these are technical problems we can solve.

>> Mr. Layson: I want to swing you back over to the weather side a little bit, again, related but back into weather.

Talk to me a little bit about the state of the art in forecasting.

You mentioned supercomputers, and supercomputers were basically I don't know if invented but, you know, really put into service to try to model the weather and the incredibly complex math problem with all its variables that it represents.

Are we any better at that substantially over the course of the past, say, decade or so?

Do you think a 7-day forecast or a 10-day forecast or a 20-day forecast is anywhere in our future for reality?

Or are we not -- give us an update on the state of the art when it comes to modeling and the state of computing and this intensely complicated problem.

>> Mr. Mass: Sure.

Well, we've come a huge distance in weather forecasting.

We rarely miss major storms a few days ahead of time.

For instance, the wildfires in 2020, we knew exactly what was going to happen and how extreme it was going to be.

Most storms that come in on a coast, we forecast those very well.

Compare that what was true 40 or 50 years ago.

Major storms would come into our shore, and we wouldn't have a forecast of it the day before.

This is true for almost every weather feature.

We're much, much more skillful in forecasting weather several days ahead, and we're gaining more skill now into the second week.

So 7 to 14 days, we're gaining skill now.

So that's one of the reasons that the number of deaths from weather-related phenomena is way down.

That's what's going to protect us for global warming, to some degree, is our ability to forecast the details of extreme weather days ahead of time and to protect people with that knowledge.

We have that.

We have that ability right now.

>> Mr. Layson: Here's sort of the next level question on that.

You talked about man's adaptability, the need to adapt, the need for technical interventions.

If you take that way out to its logical extreme, 100 years from now, 200 years from now with supercomputing getting better, our understanding of the weather getting better, do you think mankind will ever be able to control the weather?

It's been a dream as long as, you know, we've been around planting seeds.

What do you think about that?

>> Mr. Mass: Well, in some sense, you and I've just been talking about that, right?

We're talking about global warming, changing weather, right?

That's us, right?

So, obviously, mankind has the ability to change the climate, which in turn changes the weather to some degree.

We're probably not going to be able to control that particular storm.

You know, I see that storm coming and change that, that that's probably not coming up too soon.

But our ability to change the climate, that is obvious that we have that ability right now.

>> Mr. Layson: Yes.

Interesting.

And speaking of the weather and how you take a look at things, what are you thinking here for 2021?

You write on your weather blog frequently, as you get new models, you're projecting out over, you know, spring, summer, fall.

How is 2021 shaping up?

>> Mr. Mass: Well, the key thing is the La Nina.

The colder than normal water in the Pacific is weakening rapidly.

And that had a profound effect on our winter.

It caused us to be cooler than normal, better snowpack than normal here in the Northwest and also drier than normal in California.

It looks like that's weakening now.

So I think next winter will be a much more normal winter for the West Coast of the United States.

So that's what it looks like right now.

That's pretty much the only useful tool we have, quite frankly.

>> Mr. Layson: How do people approach you?

I know that you've got a pretty big following on your blog and have over the years been on public radio.

When people hear your voice, do they recognize you in the store?

Are you a celebrity?

>> Mr. Mass: Well, sometimes they do.

But no one knows what I look like because I don't do TV like you do.

So, yeah.

Occasionally people do.

And, you know, people like weather.

And the reason I do my blog is really comes out of Carl Sagan.

He told me that scientists needed to communicate directly with people and not go through the media.

And so the blog was just a perfect tool to go direct.

>> Mr. Layson: Yeah.

Sometimes it's very dense.

There's a lot of data and a lot of research on there.

But I think over time as people kind of start learning the language and the terminology they can start to follow.

>> Mr. Mass: That's right.

And there's a lot of people who are weather lovers who do get into the terminology and the technology and love learning about it.

>> Mr. Layson: And last question for you.

Where can people find you if they want to look at your blog, if they want to follow you and your research?

What's your advice there?

>> Mr. Mass: Well, very simply, you can just do a search for Cliff Mass weather blog, and you will find a right there in your search engine.

So I don't even have to give you the URL.

I also have a book, The Weather of the Pacific Northwest.

And the second edition is coming out this year, so people might want to get that as well.

>> Mr. Layson: Now, is that an update with a lot of new content in it, or is it a republishing of your original book?

>> Mr. Mass: Oh, this is a major update.

In fact, I have a whole chapter on wildfires, Northwest wildfires, a whole chapter on the weather of British Columbia and all the latest storms.

So it's a major update of the book.

Yeah.

>> Mr. Layson: All right.

So all the weather nerds out there know what their summer reading project's going to be.

Cliff Mass, I appreciate you coming to northwest NOW.

>> Mr. Mass: Thanks a lot.

It was fun.

>> Mr. Layson: Our thanks to Cliff Mass.

Now I'm shifting gears for a moment with a word specifically about climate change and going green just here before Earth Day.

The biggest mistake environmentalist ever made was tying the idea of environmentalism to the idea of having to do with less.

While early greens in this country might have fantasized about forcing us all to move into yurts and eat beans sprouts between drum circles and peyote hits, the reality is that going green might be the most economically stimulative and capacity expanding enterprise ever embarked upon by humankind.

The bottom line, if you're a red-blooded American and want more and bigger, even if that's a pickup truck and a hamburger, going green is your ticket.

If our broken politics will allow it, going green will give money greater velocity, employ us forever and provide tools and services we can't even imagine, all in the name of making our only home a cleaner, better place for us and all of the other species we share it with.

I hope this program got you thinking and talking.

To watch this program again or to share it with others, northwest NOW can be found on the web at kbtc.org.

And be sure to follow us on Twitter at northwest NOW.

Thanks for taking a closer look on this edition of northwest NOW.

Until next time, I'm Tom Layson.

Thanks for watching.