>> NOW AN IN-DEPTH LOOK INTO AMERICA'S CHANGING ELECTORAL MAP, WHICH HAS SWEEP SWATHS OF WORKING CLASS VOTERS TURN TO THE REPUBLICAN PARTY EACH TIME DONALD TRUMP HAS BEEN ON THE BALLOT, INCLUDING IN AREAS WITH SIZABLE BLACK AND HISPANIC POPULATIONS.

OR SO SOME ARGUE, SHANE GOLDMACHER FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES, WHOSE LATEST REPORT EXPLORES THESE CHANGES IN VOTING BEHAVIOR.

HE JOINS HARI SREENIVASAN TO DISCUSS WHAT HE FOUND AND HOW HE GOT HERE AND THE HURDLES DEMOCRATS FACE TO REGAIN FAST GROUND.

>> SHANE GOLDMACHER, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US HERE FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES.

YOU HAVE WRITTEN SEVERAL INTERESTING STORIES.

I WANT TO GO THROUGH A COUPLE OF THEM.

YOUR LATEST ANALYSIS.

YOU LOOKED AT EVERY U. S. COUNTY ACROSS THE LAST FOUR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.

FIRST OF ALL, WHY, BEFORE KIND OF WHAT YOU FOUND?

>> YEAH, I THINK THE GOAL HERE WAS TO ANSWER THE QUESTION, NOT JUST WHAT HAPPENED IN 2024 AND WHY DID DONALD TRUMP WIN, BUT WHETHER THIS WAS A ONE OFF.

WHETHER IT WAS A SET OF CIRCUMSTANCES THAT HAPPENED JUST LAST YEAR.

WAS IT INFLATION?

WAS IT JOE BIDEN WAS TOO OLD?

WAS IT THE DEMOCRATS SWITCHED CANDIDATES?

WAS IT SOMETHING KAMALA HARRIS DID WRONG?

I'M NOT DISCOUNTING ANY OF THOSE FACTORS.

THOSE ARE OBVIOUSLY ALL FACTORS IN A RACE THAT WAS THIS CLOSE, LAST YEAR'S ELECTION WAS.

BUT I WANTED TO LOOK BACK AT THE TOTALITY OF THE RESULTS SINCE TRUMP HAS BEEN ON THE BALLOT, INSTEAD OF BASELINE, WHICH IS WHY IT'S FOUR ELECTIONS.

2012, THE LAST TIME BEFORE HE WAS ON THE BALLOT, AND THEN EACH TIME HE WAS.

AND THE FINDINGS WERE PRETTY STARK.

TRUMP HAS IMPROVED IN NEARLY 50% OF THE COUNTIES IN AMERICA, EVERY SINGLE TIME HE'S BEEN ON THE BALLOT.

THAT'S NOT LIKE --THAT INCLUDES A RACE IN WHICH HE LOST, RIGHT?

SO EVEN IN 2020 WHEN HE LOST, HE WAS IMPROVING IN NEARLY HALF THE COUNTIES OF AMERICA ON HIS PREVIOUS ELECTION.

THAT KIND OF MARCH IN ONE DIRECTION REALLY TELLS THE STORY OF THE POLITICAL REALIGNMENT HAPPENING IN THE TRUMP ERA.

>> OKAY, ARE THERE ANY PLACES OR HOW MANY PLACES IS THE LEFT OR DEMOCRATS IMPROVING?

>> I MEAN VERY, VERY FEW.

SO ALL TOLD TRUMP IMPROVED CONTINUOUSLY.

SOMETHING WE'RE CALLING THESE TRIPLE TRENDING COUNTIES IN 1,433 COUNTIES IN THE COUNTRY.

ON THE OTHER HAND, THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, IMPROVED THREE TIMES IN A ROW IN ONLY 57 COUNTIES.

WHEN YOU PUT THIS ON THE MAP, YOU SEE THIS GIANT SEA OF RED ARROWS, AND THESE SMALL LITTLE POCKETS OF BLUE ONES, RIGHT?

IN FEW LITTLE AREAS.

THE FACT THOSE NUMBERS ARE REALLY DESPERATE IS SORT OF SCARY ENOUGH FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

IT'S ACTUALLY THE PARTICULARS OF THE PLACES THAT I THINK IS CAUSING EVEN DEEPER CONCERN AT THIS POINT.

>> SO TELL ME A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THAT.

WHAT IS AN EXAMPLE OF A TRIPLE COUNTY THAT HAS CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS TRUMP, AND MAYBE ON THE INVERSE, WHAT WAS THE COUNTY THAT HAS MOVED AWAY FROM HIM?

>> I MEAN, THE THING THAT MAKES THE REALIGNMENT HAPPENING FOR TRUMP SO SIGNIFICANT POLITICALLY IS THE BREATH OF COUNTIES THAT ARE REALIGNING IN HIS DIRECTION.

I THINK PEOPLE SORT OF HAVE THIS INTUITIVE UNDERSTANDING THAT TRUMP HAS DONE WELL IN WHITE, RURAL AREAS, AND IT IS TRUE.

NOT ONLY DID HE DO WELL IN 2016, BUT HE HAS STRENGTHENED THOSE AREAS.

THOSE MOST REPUBLICANS ARE BECOMING EVEN REDDER.

BUT THE OTHER SIDE OF THE STORY, AND I THINK ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING FINDINGS, FRANKLY, IS HIS GROWING STRENGTH IN THE MOST DIVERSE PARTS OF AMERICA.

THAT INCLUDES SMALL TOWNS IN THE SOUTH THAT ARE HEAVILY BLACK.

IT INCLUDES THE BORDER COUNTIES ALL ALONG TEXAS, WHERE YOU HAVE SOME OF THE GREATEST IMPROVEMENTS IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY.

AND IT INCLUDES INNER CITIES.

IT INCLUDES PHILADELPHIA, NEW YORK CITY, QUEENS, THE BRONX, BROOKLYN, HONOLULU, RIGHT?

THERE'S A WIDE RANGE OF PLACES WHERE TRUMP IS IMPROVING.

WHAT HE'S DOING, HE'S SQUEEZING THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

HE'S GROWING HIS NUMBERS IN THE REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLDS.

HE'S SHRINKING THE DEMOCRATIC NUMBERS AND THE DEMOCRATIC STRONGHOLDS, IN THE ONLY PLACES DEMOCRATS ARE IMPROVING CONTINUOUSLY ARE THE WEALTHIEST AND BEST EDUCATED CORNERS OF THE COUNTRY.

>> YOU KNOW, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE DEMOGRAPHICS HERE.

IS THERE KIND OF A CLASS OR EDUCATION THEME THAT UNDERLIES THESE FLIPS?

>> FOR SURE.

I MEAN FOR A LONG TIME IN AMERICA, ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PREDICTORS OF POLITICAL ALIGNMENT WAS RACE.

IT WAS IF YOU'RE IN A BLACK NEIGHBORHOOD, IT'S HEAVILY DEMOCRATIC.

A LATINO NEIGHBORHOOD, VERY, VERY DEMOCRATIC.

THAT'S STILL TRUE, BUT TRUMP MADE THAT LESS TRUE, AND REALLY REALIGNED ALONG CLASS DIVISIONS.

CLASS, IN TERMS OF BOTH INCOME AND IN TERMS OF EDUCATION.

ONE OF THE NUMBERS THAT REALLY IS STRIKING TO ME.

1,433 TRIPLE TRENDING TRUMP COUNTIES, RIGHT?

OF THOSE, ONLY THREE OF THEM WERE IN PLACES WHERE THE MEDIAN INCOME IN THE COUNTY WAS $100,000.

SO BASICALLY AN AMOUNT OF THE TRUMP TRENDING COUNTIES ARE THESE REALLY, REALLY WEALTHY JURISDICTIONS.

ON THE FLIP SIDE, AGAIN, ONLY 57 FOR THE DEMOCRATS HAVE MOVED IN THEIR DIRECTION CONTINUOUSLY.

18 OF THE 57, SO FAR MORE THAN THE DEMOCRATIC COUNTIES ARE THOSE WEALTHIEST PLACES IN THE COUNTRY.

THAT'S WHERE THE PARTY HAS BEEN IMPROVING.

THAT'S TRUE NATIONALLY.

AS YOU BREAK IT DOWN STATE BY STATE, IT'S TRUE THAT I LOOKED AT.

WHAT'S THE ONE COUNTY THE DEMOCRATS DID BETTER AT IN IOWA?

IT TURNS OUT IT'S THE WEALTHIEST COUNTY AND THE BEST EDUCATED COUNTY.

SIMILAR STORIES ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

>> WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE LONGER ARC OF WHAT PEOPLE CONSIDER THE BASE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THE BASE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, I MEAN, WHEN I WAS GROWING UP, IT WAS WHAT YOU'RE DESCRIBING.

IT WAS ABSOLUTELY AN INVERSE, RIGHT?

THE MOST WEALTHY PEOPLE TENDED TO BE INTRENDED TO BE REPUBLICAN.

AND THE WORKING CLASS SECTOR WERE THE, YOU KNOW, LESS EDUCATED AT TIMES SECTOR, UNION JOBS, ETC.

, BLUE-COLLAR WORKERS, ALL TENDED TO BE DEMOCRATS.

WHAT YOU'RE DESCRIBING HERE, IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME IN 12 YEARS, THAT STEREOTYPE IS BEING ERODED.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

THIS IS WHY TRUMP'S ELECTION IN 2024 IS BEST SEEN AS SORT OF A CULMINATION OF CHANGES.

AGAIN, WE DIDN'T JUST LOOK AT HOW MUCH THE COUNTIES HAVE SHIFTED OVER TIME.

THAT TELLS A SIMILAR STORY, BUT A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT.

THESE ARE PLACES THAT HAVE MARCHED IN ONE DIRECTION, RIGHT?

IT INCLUDES THE YEAR TRUMP LOST.

HE STRENGTHENED EVEN IN LOSING THAT 2020 RACE.

YEAH, I MEAN I THINK THE REASON MY FOCUS RIGHT NOW IS REALLY ON THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND HOW THEY'RE TRYING TO REBUILD THEMSELVES.

THE RESULTS OF THE 2020 ELECTION HAS CAUSED THIS, I DON'T KNOW THIS IS THE RIGHT WORD, BUT SOUL SEARCHING ABOUT THAT QUESTION.

HOW HAS THE PARTY FOR DEMOCRATS THAT HAS LONG BEEN DEFINED AS THE WORKING CLASS PARTY, AS THE PARTY OF DIVERSE COMMUNITIES, HOW ARE THEY SEEING THEIR SUPPORT IN THOSE POOR COMMUNITIES ERODING?

>> YOU KNOW, I'M HERE IN NEW YORK IN QUEENS.

I KNOW, YOU KNOW, WHEN THE RESULTS CAME BACK.

I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE SURPRISED FLUSHING, WHICH IS A HIGHLY CHINESE AREA OR THE BRONX, WHICH IS A HIGHLY LATINO AREA, THAT SWUNG SO MUCH MORE TOWARDS TRUMP OR BECAME PURPLE IN A BLUE FIELD.

TELL US, NATIONALLY SPEAKING, WHEN IT COMES TO BLACK AMERICANS, HOW HAVE THESE COUNTIES TRENDED.

ALSO, YOU POINT OUT A COUNTY IN YOUR REPORTING ON THE TEXAS BORDER.

>> YEAH, SO LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT THAT TEXAS COUNTY TOO BECAUSE I THINK IT IS MAYBE THE MOST STRIKING SYMBOL COUNTY IN THE COUNTRY.

STAR COUNTY IN TEXAS, BORDERS MEXICO.

THIS COUNTY FROM 2012 WAS AN OVERWHELMINGLY DEMOCRATIC COUNTY.

BARACK OBAMA WON IT IN A LANDSLIDE.

IN 2024 THIS COUNTY FLIPPED AND TRUMP WON IT.

THE TOTAL SPREAD BETWEEN 2012 AND 2024 IS AN 89 PERCENTAGE POINT SWING.

THIS ISN'T LIKE A SMALL MOVEMENT.

THIS IS A POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE.

WHAT MAKES THE COUNTY SO INTERESTING, IT'S NOT JUST ON THE BORDER WHERE IMMIGRATION IS SUCH A CENTRAL ISSUE.

IT'S NOT JUST A HEAVILY LATINO COUNTY.

IT IS THE SINGLE MOST PREDOMINANTLY HISPANIC COUNTY IN AMERICA.

NOW, OF COURSE, YOU KNOW, COUNTIES AREN'T PEOPLE, RIGHT?

THERE ARE WHITE VOTERS IN EVERY COUNTY.

THIS IS A PLACE WHERE BASICALLY EVERYONE IS HISPANIC, AND THIS IS THE COUNTY THAT MOVED THE MOST.

SO ALL ACROSS THESE HEAVILY HISPANIC COUNTIES, THEY ALL MOVED IN THE TRUMP DIRECTION.

REALLY, THERE ARE NO EXCEPTIONS.

THERE'S NO HEAVILY HISPANIC AREA THAT SHIFTED TO THE LEFT IN THE LAST FEW YEARS.

LOOK, NOT THAT LONG AGO, THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WAS TALKING ABOUT THE GROWTH OF THE LATINO POPULATION.

THE IDEA DEMOGRAPHICS WERE DESTINY.

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY WAS INCREASING BECAUSE OF THE DIVERSIFICATION ACROSS THE COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY THE GROWTH IN THE LATINO POPULATION.

WHAT YOU SEE NOW, YES, IN MANY PLACES, DEMOCRATS ARE STILL WINNING THE LATINO VOTE, BUT THEY'RE WINNING IT BY SUCH A SMALL MARGIN THAT IT'S NOT ENOUGH TO WIN ELECTIONS.

>> SO, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THIS COMES DOWN TO PEOPLE THINKING, OKAY, THIS WAS A PHENOMENON CALLED DONALD TRUMP.

WOULD ANY OTHER MEMBER OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY BE ABLE TO PULL OFF THIS SLIDE?

PERHAPS PEOPLE ON THE LEFT HAVE SOME OPTIMISM THAT WE'LL MAKE UP FOR THIS IN THE MIDTERM?

YOU'RE LOOKING AT A MUCH BIGGER TREND LINE THAN SOMETHING THAT FLIPS IN THE LAST TWO YEARS.

>> THERE IS A REASON FOR THEM TO BE HOPEFUL ALONG THE LINES.

DONALD TRUMP IS SUCH A SINGULAR FIGURE.

HIS REPUTATION IS DIFFERENT THAN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, EVEN AS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS SORT OF RENAMED IN HIS IMAGE.

HE SORT OF STANDS ALONE.

WE'VE SEEN PAST ELECTIONS WHEN HE'S NOT BEEN ON THE BALLOT.

OTHER REPUBLICANS HAVEN'T BUILT THOSE SAME COALITION THAT HE HAS, RIGHT?

THE 2018 MIDTERMS, IT MOVED IN THE DEMOCRATIC DIRECTION.

THE 2020 MIDTERMS, DEMOCRATS OUTPERFORMED EXPECTATIONS.

THEY'RE FEELING CONFIDENT HEADING INTO THE NEXT YEAR'S MIDTERMS.

I THINK THE QUESTION IS HOW DAMAGED HAS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY'S BRAND BEEN IN THIS PERIOD OF TIME?

HOW ARE VOTERS PROCEEDING DEMOCRATS AND HOW ARE THEY PROCEEDING REPUBLICANS?

I DON'T THINK THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS GOING TO SOLVE THEIR PROBLEMS SIMPLY BY THE REPUBLICANS CHANGING CANDIDATES, SIMPLY BY DONALD TRUMP GOING AWAY.

>> ONE OF THE REPORTING YOU HAVE, WHICH IS FASCINATING TO READ.

WHAT IS THE DEMOCRAT'S RESPONSE, SORT TO SPEAK.

WHAT YOU'RE FINDING IN SOME OF YOUR STORIES, THEY'RE REALLY NOT A SINGULAR MIND IN HOW TO PROCEED FORWARD, HOW TO RESPOND TO THIS STRATEGICALLY OVER A PERIOD OF YEARS OR EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM.

SO WHAT HAVE YOU FOUND?

>> THERE IS TWO FIGHTS I THINK HAPPENING SIMULTANEOUSLY AMONG DEMOCRATS TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS THE PATH FORWARD.

ONE OF THOSE IS THE SORT OF TRADITIONAL ONE WE KNOW, WHICH IS THE LEFT VERSES THE CENTER.

DO WE MODERATE, DO WE GO MORE POPULOUS?

WHAT DO WE DO?

DO WE TRY TO REV UP THE DEMOCRATIC BASE OR DO WE APPEAL TO THE MIDDLE?

THAT FIGHT HAS BEEN HAPPENING, I THINK IT IS HAPPENING NOW AND IT HAS HAPPENED FOR MANY YEARS.

I THINK THERE IS A DIFFERENT AND FRANKLY MORE INTERESTING FIGHT THAT IS ALSO HAPPENING RIGHT NOW, WHICH IS WHAT IS THE POSTURE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

I THINK IT HAS BECOME PERCEIVED BY MANY VOTERS AS BACKING INSTITUTIONS.

THE ESTABLISHMENT, THE STATUS QUO.

THERE IS A BIG PUSH TO SAY IT'S TIME TO HAVE SOME OF THE ATTITUDE THAT DONALD TRUMP HAD.

LOOK, THE POLITICAL SYSTEM IN AMERICA, THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM IN AMERICA IS NOT WORKING FOR PEOPLE.

MOST AMERICANS DON'T FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THEY AND THEIR CHILDREN WILL BE BETTER THAN THEIR PARENTS WERE.

THIS IS A SHIFT.

THE PARTY IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT TO MEET WHERE VOTERS ARE, THE FRUSTRATION WITH THE POLITICAL SYSTEM.

AT THE SAME TIME, IT IS TRYING TO DEFEND THE SYSTEM FROM DONALD TRUMP AND THE CHANGES HE'S BRINGING ABOUT.

IT IS A REAL TENSION RIGHT NOW BETWEEN HOW DO YOU BECOME THE ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT PARTY WHEN YOU HAVE REALLY COME TO EMBODY THE ESTABLISHMENT, THE ELITES, THE COLLEGE EDUCATED WORKERS.

I THINK THIS IS A BIG FIGHT THAT ISN'T NECESSARILY HAPPENING ON THE TYPICAL SORT OF LEFT, CENTER, RIGHT ACCESS.

>> ARE THERE FAMILIAR STRATEGIES THEY'RE TRYING TO DEPLOY OR EMPLOYEE TO RECONNECT WITH CERTAIN DEMOGRAPHICS?

THERE'S BEEN AN INTERESTING CONVERSATION ABOUT HOW YOUNG MEN TRENDED, FOR EXAMPLE, TOWARDS TRUMP IN HIS LAX ELECTION IN A WAY I DON'T THINK THEY EXPECTED?

>> YEAH, FOR A LONG TIME THEY HAVE SEEN THE IDEA OF A GENDER GAP AS BENEFITING THE PARTY.

IN GENERAL, ALMOST EVERY ELECTION, WOMEN OUTNUMBER MEN AT THE BALLOT BOX.

WOMEN TEND TO VOTE IN HIGHER NUMBERS.

WOMEN HAVE TENDED TO VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS MORE FREQUENTLY THAN REPUBLICANS.

WELL, THIS IS GREAT.

WE'VE GOT A GREATER SHARE OF THE GREATER NUMBER OF VOTERS.

WHILE TRUMP DID CONTINUE TO LOSE SUPPORT AMONG WOMEN IN THE 2024 ELECTION, HE RAMPED UP THE MARGINS AMONG MEN IN A WAY THAT IS SORT OF FRIGHTENING FOR DEMOCRATS.

THEY THOUGHT THEY WERE THE ONLY ONES FROM THIS GENDER GAP.

SO YEAH, THERE WERE A LOT OF STRATEGIES.

GROUPS COMING UP WITH IDEAS.

THERE ARE FOCUSED GROUPS ALMOST EVERY DAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN SMALL POCKETS OF THE CORNER, WHERE DEMOCRATS ARE TRYING TO LISTEN.

HOW ARE YOU GETTING YOUR INFORMATION?

HOW DO YOU PERCEIVE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY?

WHAT CAN WE DO TO FIX IT?

>> AND SO IS THERE ANYBODY THAT HAS GOT A VOICE IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOW THAT RESONATES AMONG MAYBE THEIR PEERS, THE DONOR CLASS, YOUNG PEOPLE?

BECAUSE ON THE ONE HAND, YOU HAVE, YOU KNOW, BERNIE FILLING ARENAS AROUND THE COUNTRY ON THEIR SPEAKING TOURS.

AND THEN ON THE OTHER HAND, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE SPECIFIC SORT OF PEOPLE THAT THE MODERATES ARE PUSHING ARE, BUT WHAT ARE THE EXAMPLES OF CANDIDATES THAT MIGHT BE NOT JUST A COUNTER WAY TO DONALD TRUMP AND THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, BUT ALSO TO THIS EMERGING FORCE ON THE LEFT?

>> I MEAN, I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT WHAT BERNIE SANDERS, WHO IS NOT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT AGAIN, AND AOC ARE DOING.

THEY'RE HAD FILLING ARENAS, AND THEY'RE FILLING ARENAS IN RED STATES IN RED CORNERS OF THE COUNTRY.

THEY'RE SHOWING AN ENERGY, NOT JUST FOR THE LEFT IDEOLOGICALLY, BUT FOR THAT FIGHTING ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT PART OF THE PARTY.

BUT THERE ARE CERTAINLY, I THINK A NUMBER OF GOVERNORS THAT ARE ALREADY OUT THERE, SORT OF TESTING THE WATERS IN THE INTERNATIONAL FIGURES.

ANDY BESHEAR, THE GOVERNOR OF KENTUCKY.

THE DEMOCRAT WHO HAS BEEN TRAVELING THE COUNTRY.

WHITMER HAS BEEN SORT OF BRANDISHING HER NATIONAL PROFILE.

THERE'S A NUMBER OF PEOPLE POSITIONING THEMSELVES.

I THINK IT'S SO EARLY TO PICK PARTICULAR CANDIDATES.

RIGHT NOW, I THINK THE FIGHT IS OVER WHO CAN DEFINE THE PARTY HEADING INTO THE MIDTERMS.

CAN DEMOCRATS COME UP WITH SOMETHING THAT IS MORE THAN JUST BEING AGAINST DONALD TRUMP?

BECAUSE LOOK, THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS, GUESS WHO TURNS OUT?

IT'S THE BETTER EDUCATED VOTERS, IT'S THE WEALTHIER VOTERS ON AVERAGE.

SO THAT GIVES THE PARTY A CHANCE, A CHANCE TO DO EVEN BETTER.

PICK UP THE HOUSE MORE LIKELY THAN NOT.

BUT THE CONCERN FROM A LOT OF PEOPLE I'VE TALKED TO, WELL, WHAT IF WE DO THAT AND DON'T MAKE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES?

DON'T MAKE BIG CHANGES TO THE PARTY, HOW PEOPLE PERCEIVE THE DEMOCRATS.

YOU WAKE UP IN 2028 AND ALL OF A SUDDEN, GUESS WHAT, YOU DIDN'T MAKE THOSE CHANGES AND REPUBLICANS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAKE GAINS IN THOSE LESS FREQUENT WORKING CLASS VOTERS THAT DELIVERED THEM THE WHITE HOUSE THE LAST TIME.

>> YOU POINTED OUT, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT WE MIGHT HAVE A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BASED ON THE MIDTERMS AND WHO COMES OUT.

IS THERE, YOU KNOW, A LARGER KIND OF SOMETHING THEY'RE MISSING IN TERMS OF WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN IN A COUPLE MORE YEARS THAT THEY SHOULD BE PREPARING FOR NOW?

>> I MEAN, I THINK THE SMART THING IS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, THEY'RE DEEPLY CONCERNED ABOUT THIS TREND LINE.

NOT JUST FOR 2028, BUT TO GET A LITTLE WONKY WITH THIS FOR A SECOND AND BEYOND.

THE CENSUS REDRAWS THE CONGRESSIONAL LINES EVERY TEN YEARS.

THE POPULATION GROWTH, IT'S BEEN IN RED STATES.

SO THE PATH THAT WAS AVAILABLE FOR KAMALA HARRIS TO WIN THE WHITE HOUSE IN 2024 IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THAT WON'T EXIST IN 2032 IF YOU CAN'T GROW IN THE DIVERSE STATES.

PLACES LIKE FLORIDA AND TEXAS.

THIS IS WHERE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY NEEDS TO BE COMPETITIVE.

GUESS WHAT THOSE STATES HAVE?

A LOT OF WORKING CLASS VOTERS, A LOT OF LATINO VOTERS.

THE VOTERS THE PARTY IS LOSING GROUND WITH IS THE PLACES THEY MOST NEED TO GAIN GROUND.

>> THAT WAS SHANE GOLDMACHER OF THE NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES.