>> CATHY: DESPITE RECENT RAINS, THE DOWNPOURS HAVE NOT MADE MINNESOTA'S DROUGHT DISAPPEAR.

TODAY'S GLORIOUS WEATHER SAW A LOT OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITY, BUT PAUL DOUGLAS HAS VENTURED INDOORS TO EXPLAIN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF FROST AND FLAKES HERE IN THE NORTH STAR STATE.

HEAD OF HIS OWN WEATHER COMPANY, PRAEDICTIX, PAUL ALSO SHARES WEATHER MUSINGS IN THE "STAR TRIBUNE" AND ON WCCO RADIO.

I'M ALL CHOKED UP.

>> ARE YOU OKAY?

>> Cathy: I'M SO OVERCOME WE MOTION THAT YOU'RE HIRE.

[ Laughter ] SO WHAT'S THE DEAL WITH THE DROUGHT?

I MEAN, I'M HAPPY, IT SOUNDS LIKE IT'S EASING.

BUT WE'RE STILL NOT QUITE OUT OF IT?

>> NO, WE'RE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS.

PARTS OF THE METRO ARE NOW DROUGHT-FREE.

IT'S STILL TOO DRY EVERYWHERE.

BUT THE RECENT RAINS, THE DELUGE, IN LATE SEPTEMBER AND JUST LAST WEEK, THAT HELPED.

WE PUT A GIANT DENT IN THE DROUGHT.

BUT I'M GOING TO LEAD WITH SOME GOOD NEWS.

>> Cathy: REALLY?

>> SOMETHING I CAN PREDICT.

FALL FOLIAGE.

[ Laughter ] >> Eric: PUT IT UP ON THE SCREEN HERE.

LET'S SEE WHAT'S GOING ON.

>> THIS WAS THE VIEW OUTSIDE MY FRONT DOOR.

>> Cathy: WOW!

>> YEAH, JUST -- >> Eric: BEAUTIFUL.

>> BUT THIS ISN'T UNIQUE.

THIS IS HAPPENING ALL ACROSS THE STATE.

AND THE COLORS ARE PEAKING IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACCORDING TO THE MINNESOTA D.N.R.

THE DARK RED UP NORTH, PAST PEAK.

BUT BRAINERD LAKES, ALEXANDRIA LAKES, METRO PEAKING WITHIN THE NEXT THREE TO FIVE DAYS.

AND YES, IT'S COMING A WEEK OR TWO LATER.

THE BEST THEORY I'VE HEARD ABOUT THAT IS BECAUSE THE TREES ARE JUST AS CONFUSED AS WE ARE.

WITH 90s IN EARLY OCTOBER.

AND, WHAT, WE HAD HE HOTTEST SUMMER ON RECORD WORLDWIDE.

AND SOME F THAT WARMTH IS BLEEDING DEEP INTO TRADITIONAL AUTUMN.

SO, YEAH, WHERE YOU SEE THE ORANGE, THAT'S STILL MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT.

THE YELLOW, OVER MUCH OF THE METRO, IS DRY.

IT'S STILL TOO DRY.

THERE'S STILL A POCKET OF EXTREME DROUGHT OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA.

SO, AGAIN, PROGRESS.

BUT WE STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO.

I FOUND THIS INTERESTING FROM CLIMATE CENTRAL.

SINCE 1970, 21 ADDITIONAL DAYS ABOVE FREEZING.

HERE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

SO WE'RE NOT SEEING THIS SIGNAL IN THE SPRING, BUT IN THE FALL, IT IS STAYING WARMER LONGER, DEEPER INTO OCTOBER.

ON A FAIRLY CONSISTENT BASIS.

WINTER IS COMING.

IT HAS BEEN DELAYED.

THE AVERAGE COATING, IF ANYBODY ASKS, AND I SURE HOPE THEY DON'T, NOVEMBER 6TH.

THE AVERAGE FIRST INCH OF SNOW IS RIGHT AROUND NOVEMBER THE 22ND.

AND DECEMBER 17TH, WE USUALLY GET OUR FIRST 4-INCH SNOWFALL.

SO THIS JUST GIVES US A LITTLE MORE BREATHING ROOM.

N.O.A.A.

YESTERDAY CAME OUT WITH THE OFFICIAL WINTER OUTLOOK.

DECEMBER, JANUARY, FEBRUARY, 3450EU8DER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER.

QUITE A BIT WARMER, PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

AND AGAIN, THIS IS ALL THANKS TO EL NINO.

THIS DEVELOPING WARM STAIN IN THE PACIFIC SESSION.

ALSO A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS DRYER THAN AVERAGE.

MUCH WETTER FOR THE GULF COAST, DP.

L. AND THE SOUTHEAST.

THAT'S HOW MOST EL NINOS GO.

BUT AS YOU'RE ABOUT TO SEE, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BIG DIFFERENCES.

THIS S FROM CLIMBAL GIST BRIAN BRETT SCHEIDER.

THE LAST EL NINO, 2016, EVERYTHING YOU SEE IN RED INCLUDING MINNESOTA, THREE, FOUR, FIVE DEGREES ARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE WINTER.

THERE HAVE BEEN 25 EL NINO EVENTS, JUST SINCE 1950.

THE AVERAGE TWO DEGREES WARMER, WHICH DOESN'T SOUND LIKE MUCH, BUT IT CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

AND 22% LESS SNOW ON AVERAGES.

DURING AN EL NINO WINTER ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.

HOWEVER, THERE ARE BIG EXCEPTIONS.

THE HALLOWEEN SUPERSTORM OF '91.

YOU REMEMBER THAT.

>> Cathy: YES.

>> I'LL TAKE HAT TO MY GRAVE.

25 TO 30 INCHES OF SNOW, THAT TOOK PLACE DURING AN EL NINO WINTER.

>> Cathy: NO!

>> SO WE CAN'T GET TOO COMPLACENT.

ODD CERTAINLY FAVORITE IT'S TO GOING TO BE A MILDER DRYER WINTER.

WE WILL NOT GET 90 INCHES OF SNOW.

I WILL WASH AND WAX ERIC'S MINI VAN IF WE GET MORE THAN 60 INCHES OF SNOW.

I THINK WE'RE GOING TO GET 40 TO 45.

>> Eric: I'VE NEVER OWNED A CAR.

>> NEVER?

>> Cathy: NO.

>> THAT'S RAE MARKABLE.

>> Cathy: THAT'S A WHOLE ANOTHER STORY.

>> Eric: WE'RE GETTING THE HOOK WITH MY CAR STORY.

NICE TO SEE YOU.