STRONG INFRASTRUCTURE.

♪♪ >> ERIC: THE STOCK MARKET CONTINUED ITS ROLLER COASTER RIDE THIS WEEK, WHILE HERE IN MINNESOTA, NEWS WAS THAT MARCH WAS THE BIGGEST MONTH FOR JOB GROWTH IN A YEAR, ADDING NEARLY 11,000 NEW JOBS LAST MONTH.

DESPITE NUMBERS THAT INDICATE RESILIENCE IN THE STATE ECONOMY, OFFICIALS CAUTION THAT TOUGH TIMES COULD BE AHEAD.

LOUIS JOHNSTON TEACHES ECONOMICS AT THE COLLEGE OF ST. BEN'S AND ST. JOHN'S UNIVERSITY.

CHRIS FARRELL IS BACK.

HE COVERS ECONOMICS FOR AMERICAN PUBLIC MEDIA.

WELL, PROFESSOR JOHNSTON, STRONG JOBS REPORT, WE'VE HEARD ABOUT ALL THESE EMPLOYEE LAYOFFS, FEDERAL EMPLOYEE LAYOFFS, A LAGGING INDICATOR?

>> YEAH ASSOCIATION, SO THE JOBS REPORT THAT CAME OUT FOR THE FEDERAL LEVEL AND FOR THE STATE LEVEL BASICALLY ARE THE PAST.

IT'S WHAT WAS GOING ON BEFORE ALL OF THIS TURMOIL WAS HAPPENING.

PLUS, ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S MESSING WITH THE NUMBERS IS THAT WE HEAR ABOUT THESE JOBS BEING LOST FOR THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, BUT THE WAY THEY'RE COUNTED IS THEY ARE ACTUALLY STILL BEING PAID.

AND SO SOME OF THESE PEOPLE ARE STILL COUNTED AS EMPLOYED, EACH THOUGH THEY'RE NOT ACTUALLY EMPLOYED.

SO IT'S GOING TO MESS WITH NUMBERS NOW FOR MONTHS.

>> Eric: YOUR THOUGHTS ON OUR JOBLESS RATE IN MINNESOTA AS IT COMPARES TO THE FEDS?

>> SO THE THING THAT I WOULD FOCUS ON IS I THINK THE JOB MARKET IS FROZEN RIGHT NOW.

SO IF YOU HAVE A JOB, YOU'RE NOT LEAVING THAT JOB.

YOU'RE NOT GOING ELSEWHERE.

AND IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR A JOB, IF YOU THINK ABOUT IF YOU'RE A COMPANY, AN ORGANIZATION, YOU'RE GOING, WELL, NOW'S NOT REALLY THE TIME TO BE ADDING TO MY PAYROLL.

SO IT'S NOT SHOWING UP IN LAYOFFS, BUT IT'S SHOWING UP IN, IT'S NOT A VERY DYNAMIC LABOR MARKET RIGHT NOW.

>> Cathy: I'M WONDERING WHAT YOU BOTH THINK OVER THIS FIGHT OF THE FUTURE OF THE FED CHAIR, MR. POWELL.

NOW, CAN HE -- HE CAN'T BE FIRED LEGALLY OR CAN HE BE?

>> OKAY, SO TO CUT RIGHT TO THE POINT -- >> Cathy: THANK YOU.

>> IT'S DISASTROUS.

IT IS A DISASTER IN THE MAKING IF IT ACTUALLY HAPPENS.

THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE, WHICH DOESN'T MEAN THE FEDERAL REFERENCE CAN'T MAKE TERRIBLE MISTAKES, BUT THE INDEPENDENCE IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT.

IF HE'S FIRED, I THINK THAT WOULD SET THE BOND INVESTORS INTO NEW TERRITORY.

AND IT WOULD BE A REALLY BAD MOVE, BECAUSE THEN THE FEELING WOULD BE, THE PRESIDENT IS DICTATING.

MONETARY POLICY.

AND THAT'S JUST NOT A GOOD THING.

AND I THINK THAT'S GENERALLY ACROSS THE BOARD.

SO INVESTORS -- DOESN'T MATTER WHAT THEIR POLITICS.

DOESN'T MATTER WHAT THEY DO IN THE VOTING BOOTH.

WHEN IT COMES TO THEIR DOLLAR, THEY'RE GOING TO GO, THIS DOLLAR, HE RISK IS DEPRECIATED REALLY FAST.

>> Eric: DO YOU WANT STABLE PRICES OR LOW EMPLOYMENT?

>> THAT'S WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO BE STRUGGLING WITH.

SO EVER SINCE THE LATE 1970s WITH HUBERT HUMPHREY'S MANDATE FOR HAVING THOSE TWO TARGETS, IT'S ALWAYS BEEN KIND OF A BALANCING ACT.

AND RIGHT NOW, CHAIRMAN OWELL HAS BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT THE BALANCE HAS GOT TO BE ON PRICES, THAT WITH THESE TARIFFS PUSHING PRICES UP, THAT THERE'S A REAL DANGER THAT YOU COULD SET OFF AN INFLATIONARY SPIRAL AGAIN.

>> Cathy: DOES IT SURPRISE YOU AT ALL THAT THE PRESIDENT IS OFFERING KIND OF A LIFE LINE TO FARMERS?

>> NO.

NOT AT ALL.

I MEAN, THAT'S -- THAT, TO ME, IS PURE POLITICS.

THE TARIFFS ARE BAD FOR FARMERS.

JUST THINK ABOUT HERE IN MINNESOTA, THE RELIANCE ON THE EXPORT MARKET WITH CORN AND JOSOYBEANS.

AND SO IT'S A STRONG BLOC THAT BACKED HIM.

IF YOU THINK ABOUT HIS FIRST TERM, THEY SUPPORTED THE FARMERS WITH A LOT OF SUBSIDIES.

THIS TERM I THINK HE'D LIKE TO DO THE SAME THING.

THE DIFFERENCE THIS TIME AROUND IS THERE ARE A LOT OF CONCERNS ABOUT THE BUDGET, THE DEFICIT, THE NEGOTIATIONS THAT ARE COMING AROUND.

SO ACTUALLY I THINK FARMERS ARE MORE VULNERABLE THAN THEY WERE IN THE FIRST TERM.

>> Eric: DO YOU EXPERTS KNOW WHERE THE TARIFF BUSINESS IS HEADED?

>> NO, AND THAT'S THE THING LIKE CHRIS SAID A FEW MINUTES AGO, EVERYBODY'S JUST KIND OF FROZEN RIGHT NOW.

THE JOB MARKET IS FROZEN.

BUSINESSES DON'T KNOW WHETHER TO INVEST OR NOT IN NEW PLANTS AND FACTORIES AND THINGS IKE THAT.

ECONOMISTS AND FORECASTERS ARE FROZEN.

WE JUST DON'T KNOW.

BUT WE CAN PREDICT, YOU KNOW, SOME DIFFERENT THINGS LIKE, IF THESE 145% TARIFFS ON CHINA REALLY DO GO THROUGH, HIS IS GOING TO BE A HUGE SHOCK TO THE INTERNATIONAL TRADING SYSTEM.

>> Eric: IF THE U.S. WAS TO REINDUSTRIALIZE, YOU COULDN'T DO IT IN FOUR OR FIVE MONTHS?

>> NO, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT A DECADE-LONG PROCESS.

>> COULDN'T DO IT IN FOUR TO FIVE YEARS.

>> MOST ECONOMISTS OF DIFFERENT TRANDS OF THOUGHT WOULD AGREE, THAT, LOOK, THERE ARE ISSUES, THERE ARE PROBLEMS, BUT THIS IS TAKING A CUDGEL, THIS WILL NOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM.

YOU NEED MORE OF A SCALPEL.

YOU NEED MORE TARGETED POLICIES AND THESE BROAD-BASED TARIFFS JUST ARE GOING TO DO A LOT OF DAMAGE BECAUSE, IF YOU'RE A COMPANY RIGHT NOW, AND YOU'RE TRYING TO DO WE INVEST IN THE U.S.?

DO WE INVEST IN ASIA?

DO WE INVEST IN MEXICO?

YOU'RE JUST FROZEN.

SO THAT'S YOU'RE A COUPLE MONTHS.

STRETCH THAT OUT FOR A COUPLE YEARS.

>> AND ALSO, IF YOU TAKE WORLD WAR II OUT, WE HAVE BEEN HAVING MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT FALLING EVER SINCE THE 1920s.

THIS IS NOT SOMETHING THAT YOU'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO REVERSE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME TARIFFS OR SOME POLICIES.

THIS IS REALLY LONG-TERM CHANGE.

>> Cathy: I THINK THE SERIES YOU'RE DOING WITH "NEXT AVENUE".ORG HERE AT TPT AND MARKETPLACE ABOUT OLDER FOLKS BEING DEEP IN DEBT, EXCELLENT REPORTING.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

AND IT IS REALLY A DISTRESSING STORY.

IT REALLY IS EYE-OPENING.