>> Cathy: AS FEDERAL IMMIGRATION OPERATIONS IN MINNESOTA REDUCE FROM A BOIL TO A SIMMER, THE IMPACT IS BEING QUANTIFIED IN A HANDFUL OF EARLY REPORTS.

ONE OF THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE EXAMINES LABOR COSTS IN THE TWIN CITIES.

WITH US NOW ARE THE AUTHORS OF THAT STUDY, AARON ROSENTHAL IS THE RESEARCH DIRECTOR AT NORTH STAR POLICY ACTION, THE ORGANIZATION THAT PUBLISHED THE STUDY, AND AARON SOJOURNER IS A SENIOR ECONOMIST AND DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AT THE W.E.

UPJOHN INSTITUTE FOR EMPLOYMENT RESEARCH.

THANK YOU BOTH FOR BEING HERE.

APPRECIATE YOUR TIME.

SO YOU'RE LOOKING AT MISSED WORK, WOULD THAT BE AN ACCURATE THING TO SAY?

SPECIFICALLY WHAT AREAS OF WORK WERE YOU CONCENTRATING ON?

>> YEAH, SO WE LOOKED AT THREE LABOR OUTCOMES.

WE WERE LOOKING AT THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES SHOWING UP TO WORK, THE THE NUMBER OF HOURS THEY WERE WORKING, AND THEN THE NUMBER OF BUSINESSES THAT WERE IN OPERATION.

AND BASICALLY WHAT WE'VE FOUND IS A 3% DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES WORKING AND THEN ABOUT A 2% DECLINE IN THE NUMBER, TOTAL NUMBER F HOURS BEING WORKED IN THE TWIN CITIES, AND A 2% DECLINE ROUGHLY IN THE NUMBER OF BUSINESSES THAT WERE IN OPERATION FROM THE BEGINNING OF JUNE TO THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.

>> Cathy: WERE YOU LOOKING AT, DID YOU ALSO INCLUDE SAY POLICE IN THIS AS WELL AND OTHER PARTS OF THE ECONOMY?

>> NO, IT'S DATA THAT COMES FROM A PAYROLL AND TIME-KEEPING SYSTEM THAT A LOT OF SMALL BUSINESSES USE.

SO THINK ABOUT IT LIKE RETAIL, RESTAURANTS, LOCAL BUSINESSES IN THE TWIN CITIES COMMUNITY.

THAT'S THE FOUNDATION OF THE INFORMATION.

IT'S PEOPLE COMING INTO WORK, SWIPING, SWIPING IN, SWIPING OUT, AND WHAT'S GREAT ABOUT IT, THOUGH, IS THAT YOU CAN SEE DATA DAY TO DAY, SHIFT TO SHIFT AND YOU CAN SEE HOW IT CHANGED FROM, YOU KNOW, OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY.

EACH DAY.

>> Eric: THIS IS THE $106 MILLION FIGURE?

>> YEAH, SO WHEN WE LOOK AT THE NUMBER IN PARTICULAR IN THAT CASE OF THE NUMBER OF HOURS WORKED AND THE DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF HOURS WORKED SO AGAIN I SAID ABOUT A 2% DECLINE WHICH DOESN'T SOUND THAT BIG BUT REMEMBER WE'RE TALKING ABOUT 2 MILLION PEOPLE WORKING IN THE TWIN ITIES METRO AREA, SO WE QUANTIFY THAT, WE MAKE SOME PRETTY CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTIONS ACTUALLY ABOUT HOW MUCH PEOPLE ARE GETTING PAID, HOW MANY HOURS THEY USUALLY WORK AND IF WE APPLY THOSE ASSUMPTIONS WE GET $106 MILLION IN LOST WAGES.

AGAIN, JUST IN ABOUT A SIX-WEEK PERIOD.

IF WE MAKE AN ESTIMATE AROUND, SAY, A MEDIAN WAGE THAT SOMEBODY IN THE TWIN CITIES MAKES, THAT NUMBER GOES UP TO ABOUT 140 MILLION.

SO THE DECLINE IS PRETTY HUGE.

>> Eric: YEAH.

>> Cathy: DID YOU INCLUDE THE ONE-DAY WORK STOPPAGE IN THIS?

>> YEAH, THIS IS ABOUT FROM THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY WHEN THE AGENTS FIRST SURGED RIGHT AFTER THE NEW YEAR WHEN THEY SENT 2,000 MORE AGENTS IN, UNTIL MID-FEBRUARY.

SO IT INCLUDES THE DAY OF THE GENERAL STRIKE AND IT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE THE DATA IS DAILY, SO YOU CAN ACTUALLY SEE THE STRIKE DAY IN THERE AND YOU CAN SEE THAT THAT'S THE DAY WHEN WORK WAS THE LEAST.

IT WAS ABOUT 17% BELOW EXPECTATIONS.

IN THE WHOLE METRO AREA.

>> Eric: YOU FELLOWS ARE ON THE FRONT END OF RESEARCH ON THIS OBVIOUSLY, WAS IT HARD DIGGING UP THE DATA?

>> IT WAS.

IT'S, YOU KNOW, IT'S EARLY DAYS TO TRY AND ACTUALLY COLLECT DATA AND LOOK AT ECONOMIC OUTCOMES.

OUR FEELING IS THERE'S A LOT OF ANECDOTAL REPORTING COMING OUT, WHICH IS REALLY IMPORTANT REPORTING, RIGHT, ABOUT SPECIFIC BUSINESSES BEING IMPACTED.

BUT ULTIMATELY THE LEGISLATURE IS IN SESSION RIGHT NOW, THEY NEED DATA RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND MAKE A DECISION ABOUT HOW MUCH RELIEF TO PROVIDE TO MINNESOTANS AND WE FEEL THAT IF THEY'RE GOING TO MAKE A DECISION ABOUT HOW MUCH RELIEF TO PROVIDE, THEY NEED TO KNOW THE SCALE OF THE HARM DONE.

AND SO THAT'S WHY WE FEEL IT'S SO IMPORTANT TO HAVE THIS ANALYSIS OUT AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE.

>> Cathy: WHERE ARE THE GAPS IN YOUR RESEARCH THAT YOU REALLY WOULD LIKE TO GO BACK AND MAYBE REDO IF YOU COULD?

DOES THAT MAKE SENSE?

>> YEAH.

YEAH, SO WE HAVE ONE MEASURE OF CONSUMER SPENDING THAT WE LOOKED AT, BUT IT WAS FROM A TOTALLY DIFFERENT SOURCE, IT'S FROM CREDIT CARD TRANSACTION.

AND IT'S ONLY AVAILABLE AT THE MONTHLY LEVEL, SO NOT THE DAILY.

SO IT'S KIND OF NOISY, WE'RE HOPING TO GET MORE DATA ON THAT.

THAT WILL HELP MEASURE CONSUMER SPENDING IMPACTS.

HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS, WE KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE SKIPPED HEALTH CARE, LEARNING LOSS IN SCHOOLS.

YOU KNOW, THERE'S -- PEOPLE WERE IMPACTED ALL OVER THE COMMUNITY IN SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS.

WE'RE JUST STARTING TO GET A HANDLE ON IT.

THERE'S STILL SO MUCH TO LEARN.

>> Eric: YOU'D SAY THIS IS A PRETTY SERIOUS IMPACT ON THE TWIN CITIES ECONOMY, OR THE STATE'S ECONOMY, OR?

>> I MEAN, $106 MILLION SORT OF SPEAKS FOR ITSELF AND AGAIN THAT'S A CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTION.

SO IT'S LIKELY THAT THE ACTUAL LOST WAGES WERE QUITE A BIT BIGGER AND THEN WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT THAT'S JUST LOST WAGES, RIGHT?

SO THAT RIPPLES THROUGH THE ECONOMY.

WHEN PEOPLE DON'T HAVE MONEY TO SPEND IT'S NOT JUST THAT THEY DON'T HAVE WAGES, IT'S THAT THEY CAN'T THEN GO AND SPEND THAT AT RESTAURANTS AND GROCERY STORES AROUND THE STATE.

>> Eric: RIPPLE EFFECT.

>> RIPPLE EFFECT.

EXACTLY.

SO THIS WILL RIPPLE ALL THROUGH THE ECONOMY AND THAT MEANS THAT THAT $106 MILLION ACTUALLY BECOMES QUITE A BIT BIGGER LOSS FOR THE TWIN CITIES.

>> Cathy: THIS MAY SOUND LIKE A SILLY QUESTION BUT DID ANYBODY BENEFIT IN TERMS OF THE I.C.E.

OFFICERS STAYED IN HOTELS.

>> RIGHT, RIGHT.

>> Cathy: RENTAL CAR AGENCIES.

>> YEAH, NO, THAT'S A VERY GOOD QUESTION BECAUSE ANY KIND OF ACTIVITY THERE'S COSTS AND THERE'S BENEFITS AND IF YOU WANT TO HAVE A FULL ACCOUNTING YOU WANT TO MEASURE BOTH.

AND IT'S DEFINITELY TRUE THAT LIKE THE HOTELS FROM THE I.C.E.

AGENTS WERE, AND THE DHS AGENTS WERE MORE FULL.

MAYBE THEY WERE EATING AT RESTAURANTS MORE THAN IF THEY WERE SOMEWHERE ELSE IN THE COUNTRY.

BUT AGAIN THAT'S OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT MANY OF OUR NEIGHBORS WERE SCARED TO GO OUT IN PUBLIC AND THEY WERE CAUSING VIOLENCE IN THE STREET AND IN A RACIALLY DISCRIMINATORY WAY AND IT WAS DISRUPTING A LOT OF PEOPLE'S LIVES, WORK LIVES, SOCIAL LIVES, WORSHIP LIFE, LIKE PEOPLE JUST WEREN'T GOING ABOUT THEIR DAY.

SO WE -- HOTELS PROBABLY IN THE DATA, RESTAURANTS IN THE DATA.

ON NET, YOU KNOW, THEY WERE DRIVING IT UP.

OTHER THINGS WERE DRIVING IT DOWN ON AVERAGE, IT WAS DOWN.

>> Eric: GOOD STUFF.

APPRECIATE YOU GUYS COMING