OUR POLITICAL PANEL WILL HAVE A LOT OF REGIONAL AND NATIONAL NEWS TO BREAK DOWN AS WELL.

>> Eric: WE START TONIGHT WITH U.S.

AND ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES IN IRAN.

PRESIDENT TRUMP ORDERED THE SURPRISE ATTACK SATURDAY KILLING DOZENS OF HIGH RANKING LEADERS INCLUDING THE AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI.

AFTER INITIALLY DENYING U.S.

INVOLVEMENT IN REGIME CHANGE, TRUMP TOLD REPORTERS THURSDAY HE WANTS TO INFLUENCE WHO BECOMES THE NEXT LEADER OF IRAN.

JOINING US TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE POLITICAL CLIMATE IN IRAN, SHA HER SQUAD AHMADI WHO SPECIALIZES IN POLITICAL HISTORY OF IRAN AND IRAQ.

WELCOME.

WHO'S LEFT OF THE GOVERNING STRUCTURE AND WHO'S IN CHARGE RIGHT NOW?

>> AT THE MOMENT THERE'S A THREE-PERSON PANEL WHO'S TAKEN OVER THE ROLE OF AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI.

HOWEVER I THINK THIS S AN OPEN QUESTION OF WHO S IN CHARGE AND IT'S IN CHAOS AND THE MILITARY HAS DEMONSTRATED THEY DON'T HAVE A TRONG CENTRAL AUTHORITY.

>> Cathy: COULD YOU EXPLAIN FOR FOLKS MAYBE A QUICK PRIMER, I THINK IT'S A CONFUSING SITUATION WHERE THE SUPREME LEADER HAS DIED.

BUT WHO'S SUPPOSED TO BE LEADING THE COUNTRY?

>> IRAN HAS A VERY COMPLICATED SYSTEM SO I'LL GIVE A VERY QUICK EXPLANATION.

IT'S CALLED AN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC, MEANING THERE ARE TWO PILLARS ONE IS CONSTITUTIONAL, DEMOCRATIC, PEOPLE VOTE FOR THEIR PRESIDENT, THEIR CONGRESSPEOPLE AND THEN THERE IS AN UNELECTED BRANCH.

THOSE PEOPLE HOLD THE MOST POWER AND THOSE ARE RELIGIOUS AUTHORITIES.

THEY ARE UNELECTED, AND AT THE VERY TOP OF THAT SYSTEM IS THE SUPREME LEADER WHO WAS AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI >> Cathy: BY THE WAY OPINIONS OF THE SUPREME LEADER SEEMED A BIT ALL OVER THE MAP IN A SENSE.

>> ABSOLUTELY TRUE.

JUST IN THE LAST FIVE TO TEN YEARS IT'S BECOME INCREASINGLY OBVIOUS THAT THE PUBLIC DOES NOT SUPPORT THE SUPREME LEADER, NOT ONLY HIS PERSON, BUT HIS AUTHORITY AND THE POSITION ITSELF.

>> Eric: POPULARITY OF WHOEVER MIGHT FOLLOW, IS THERE A SUCCESSION IN PLACE OR WHOEVER TAKES OVER NEXT, OR?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

SO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC WAS FORMED WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOMETHING LIKE THIS MIGHT HAPPEN BECAUSE FROM ITS INSTITUTION THERE WAS SO MUCH PRESSURE ON THEM TO DISSOLVE.

IN FACT JUST A YEAR AFTER THEY WERE CONSTITUTED THERE WAS A VERY PROTRACTED WAR WITH IRAQ.

SO THERE ARE A LOT OF LEVERS HERE FOR SOMETHING LIKE THIS THAT HAPPENED OBVIOUSLY.

HOWEVER, THE REAL QUESTION IS WHO HAS PUBLIC CONSENT OR PUBLIC SUPPORT TO RULE.

AND IS THERE AN AUTHORITY WITHIN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC THAT CAN TAKE ON THAT MANTLE.

>> Eric: PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID HE'S NOT WORRIED IF IRAN BECOMES A DEMOCRATIC STATE.

HE SAYS THAT'S UP TO THE IRANIAN PEOPLE.

>> I THOUGHT THAT WAS AN EYE OPENING COMMENT.

IN MY VIEW IT SEEMS HE'S OPEN TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC BECOMING A SORT OF MILITARIZED STATE ALA EGYPT AND THAT HAS SERVED THE UNITED STATES WELL.

AFTER THE 1967 WAR WITHS ISRAEL ALTHOUGH THE ARAB STATES LOST, THOSE AUTHORITIES REMAINED, AND BECAME ALLIES TO SOME EXTENT WITH THE UNITED STATES AND ISRAEL.

THIS MIGHT BE SOMETHING THAT HE'S IMAGINING.

>> Cathy: SO WHAT DO YOU THINK THE GENERAL PUBLIC MAKES OF THE OTHER COMMENT THAT HE WOULD WANT TO INFLUENCE THE NEXT CHOICE OF LEADER?

>> THE QUESTION FOR THE AMERICAN PUBLIC WOULD BE WHAT KIND OF INFLUENCE?

HOW MUCH MONEY, HOW MUCH TIME ARE THEY INVESTING TO MAKE THIS MAP?

FROM THE IRANIAN SIDE WHAT DOES THIS MEAN ON THE GROUND.

HOW MUCH CHAOS HOW MUCH CHAOS * POSSIBLE THAT IRAN WILL SPLIT INTO MULTIPLE STATES?

THIS S PROBABLY THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO FROM THE IRANIAN PERSPECTIVE, AND MAYBE A PLAUSIBLE IF NOT DESIRABLE SCENARIO FROM THE ISRAELI AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE.

>> Cathy: COULD THE WAR SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL?

ALREADY BOMBS HAVE BEEN FALLING IN OTHER ARAB COUNTRIES.

WHAT'S THE BIGGEST FEAR HERE?

>> ABSOLUTELY, IT CAN SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL BUT ALSO IT COULD UNDERMINE ARAB STATES WHO WANT TO ALLY WITH THE UNITED STATES.

WHY HAVE THESE BASES BUT FOR PROTECTION?

NOW THE BASES ARE MAKING THEM VULNERABLE SO THIS CAN BECOME A VERY COSTLY WAR FOR THE UNITED STATES BUT ALSO UNDERMINE THE DESIRABILITY OF BEING N AMERICAN ALLY.

>> Eric: WHAT'S YOUR SENSE N HOW DANGEROUS IRAN AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES ARE TO THE U.S.

AND ISRAEL?

>> CAN YOU REPEAT THAT?

WHAT DO YOU MEAN?

>> Eric: IN OTHER WORDS DOES IRAN POSE A DANGER TO ISRAEL OR THE U.S., PRE-WAR.

>> PRE-WAR.

THIS IS THE PITCH THAT THE UNITED STATES IS MAKING, IRAN POSED AN IMMINENT HREAT TO THE UNITED STATES, NOW, RUBIO PROPOSED THIS DIFFERENTLY, IRAN POSED A THREAT TO IT AND THAT'S WHY THEY GOT INVOLVED.

CLEARLY THERE IS NOT CONSENSUS ABOUT WHY THE WAR STARTED, THERE IS NOT CONSENSUS ABOUT HOW MUCH OF THE NUCLEAR CAPACITY OF IRAN HAD BEEN UNDERMINED OVER THE SUMMER.

THIS IS AN OPEN QUESTION, WHETHER OR NOT IRAN POSED IMMINENT THREAT.

>> Cathy: ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING DURING RAMADAN, WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT?

>> RAMADAN AND PURIM, WHICH IS A JEWISH HOLIDAY.

THIS IS AN ANCIENT CIVILIZATION, IRAN'S CONNECTION AND SRAEL'S CONNECTION TO THE LAND IS VERY ANCIENT.

IT'S INTERESTING THAT THESE HISTORIES INTERTWINE IN THESE DYNAMIC WAYS THAT ARE BOTH KIND OF POETIC AND VERY TRAGIC.

SO IT IS A VERY SAD STORY.

THE HOLIDAYS I THINK MAKE IT EVEN MORE SO.

>> Cathy: NOW, WE TALKED A LITTLE BIT OFF AIR HERE ABOUT YOUR FAMILY.

HAVE YOU HAD A CHANCE TO CONTACT THEM?

BECAUSE THE INTERNET'S DOWN.

>> IT'S VERY HARD TO CONTACT PEOPLE.

VERY HARD.

THERE'S ALSO, IT'S DIFFICULT TO GET INFORMATION OUT OF IRAN AND SOMETHING I WAS THINKING ABOUT JUST ON THE WAY HERE WAS HOW MUCH A.I.

ALSO COMPLICATES THIS.

I MEAN, TO WHAT EXTENT ARE MATERIALS COMING OUT OF IRAN THAT ARE NOT EVEN TRUE AND WE DON'T KNOW BECAUSE IT MIGHT BE GENERATED BY SOMEONE ELSE.

SO IT'S SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT IN THIS INFORMATION ECONOMY THAT WE'RE IN, WHAT DO WE SEE, IS IT REAL, WHO'S PUSHING WHAT.

THERE'S A LOT OF QUESTION MARKS HERE.

>> Eric: REALLY A