>> CATHY: MINNESOTA WEATHER IS A TALE OF TWO EXTREMES RIGHT NOW AS WE TRANSITION FROM SPRING TO SUMMER.

MORE THAN HALF OF THE STATE'S COUNTIES CURRENTLY FACE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR EXTREME FIRE RISK, INCLUDING MANY IN THE NORTHEAST WHICH SAW FLOOD WARNINGS JUST LAST WEEKEND.

AND LOOMING ON THE HORIZON IS A POTENTIAL "SUPER" EL NINO THIS SUMMER.

WE'RE GOING TO ASK WHAT THAT IS.

KENNY BLUMENFELD JOINS US FROM THE STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE.

GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.

AS WE SPEAK ON FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE ARE EIGHT FIRES BURNING IN St.

LOUIS COUNTY, THEY'VE ACTIVATED THE EMERGENCY OPERATION CENTER, THERE'S A PRETTY BIG FIRE JUST NORTH OF TWO HARBORS.

54 OF MINNESOTA'S 87 COUNTIES ARE NDER EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

HOW VOLATILE IS THE SITUATION?

>> WELL, TODAY IS KIND OF THE BIG DAY.

SO IT'S BEEN HOT, WINDY, AND DRY.

AND LOW HUMIDITY.

AND THOSE ARE THE INGREDIENTS.

IF YOU REMOVE ONE OF THEM, THE FIRE RISK REALLY GOES DOWN.

AND, SO, TODAY WAS KIND OF THE TINDER BOX THAT EVERYONE HAD BEEN FEARING FOR A WHILE AND THERE HAVE BEEN FIRES, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

IF YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE FIRE AND SMOKE MAPS, THERE'S BEEN SOME PRESCRIBED BURNS, SO THE INTENTIONAL ONES THAT ARE MANAGED, BUT THEN THESE WILDFIRES BREAKING OUT.

AND I SHOULD STRESS, AS OF RIGHT BEFORE WE WENT ON, THEY'RE STILL RELATIVELY SMALL, BUT UNCONTAINED.

>> Cathy: RIGHT.

>> SO, YEAH, THE HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS.

>> Cathy: THERE'S A METEOROLOGIST IN DULUTH I FOLLOW, AND HE WAS TALKING ABOUT -- OF COURSE, EVERYONE'S FOCUSED ON THE NORTH SHOW, HIGHWAY 611 CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS, NORTH OF TWO HARBORS, BETTY'S PIE, LEGENDARY, HAS BEEN EVACUATED, HOMES EVACUATED AS WELL.

HE WAS TALKING ABOUT DRY THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES TONIGHT.

WHAT THE HECK IS THAT AND DOES THAT KIND OF MAYBE REALLY COLOR THE SITUATION?

>> YEAH, WE DON'T HAVE A LOT OF THOSE.

SO, IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS, YOU GET THESE THUNDERSTORMS, SO THERE'S LIGHTENING AND THERE'S RAIN BUT IT DOESN'T MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.

[ HIGHWAY 61 ] .

HERE IN MINNESOTA WE DON'T GET THAT SO MUCH, BUT WE DO GET THE SMALL ISOLATED STORMS WITH VERY SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION, KIND OF A SMALL PRECIPITATION AREA AND SOMETIMES THE LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE OF WHERE IT'S RAINING, IT'S ONE OF THE TRICKS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SO, THAT'S ABOUT AS CLOSE TO A DRY THUNDERSTORM AS WE CAN GET.

>> Eric: 80 TO 90% CHANCE OF SUPER EL NINO THROUGH NEXT FEBRUARY.

>> Cathy: WHAT IS THAT?

>> Eric: IS THAT A THREAT OR A MENACE, WHAT IS THAT?

>> SO THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT AGENCIES AT PLAY HERE.

SO IN THE EUROPEAN FORECASTING COMMUNITY HAS THIS MODEL THAT EVERYONE LIKES, THEY CALL IT THE EURO, AND THAT ONE, LOOKING FORWARD, SEEING A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF EITHER A STRONG EL NINO OR A SUPER EL NINO.

THE UNITED STATES AGENCY, 65% LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONG OR VERY STRONG EL NINO.

NOW, WE OULDN'T NECESSARILY SEE THE RESULTS OF THAT HERE.

IT'S HARD TO KNOW.

BUT THAT PEAK WOULD BE IN THE FALL AND EARLY WINTER.

THAT'S USUALLY WHEN EL NINOS REALLY GET GOING.

BUT WE'RE ALREADY SEEING THE RAMP-UP.

AND SO IT HAS EVERYBODY'S ATTENTION.

WE'VE NEVER SEEN PROBABILITIES THIS HIGH AND SORTED OF THE RANGE OF STRENGTH THIS HIGH FOR AN EL NINO FORECAST.

SOME OF THAT'S BECAUSE FORECASTING CAPABILITIES HAVE IMPROVED BUT THEY'RE SEEING SOMETHING BIG AND IT'S EITHER GOING TO BE A HUGE BUST OR WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A WHOPPER OF AN EL NINO THIS WINTER.

>> Cathy: OKAY.

SO GETTING BACK TO THE SUMMER NOW, LATE SPRING, EARLY SUMMER.

SO WE HAVE THESE DRY CONDITIONS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS, RIGHT?

>> UM-HUM.

>> Cathy: YET, AS I SAID IN MY INTRODUCTION, LAST WEEKEND, AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA HAD FLOOD WARNINGS, WHICH IS KIND OF INTERESTING.

I'M WONDERING, HOW DOES THE SEVERE STORM SEASON LOOK, GIVEN THAT -- I KNOW IT'S KIND OF HARD TO PINPOINT, BUT WE'VE GOT SOME STORMS COMING P SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

>> SO, SO FAR THE SEVERE WEATHER SEASON HAS BEEN IGHT ON TIME.

WE HAD TORNADOES IN APRIL IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

THERE ARE, AS WE SPEAK, THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE JUST ON THE BORDER OF BEING SEVERE AROUND I-90, IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA RIGHT NOW.

AND THE RISK IS REALLY BALLOONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND ALSO FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

SO, THIS IS THE THING THAT'S INTERESTING.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THEIR FORECAST DISCUSSION TODAY, THIS WAS THE CHANHASSEN OFFICE, THEY SAID, WE'RE DEALING WITH A CRITICAL, KIND OF EXTREME FIRE RISK, IT MIGHT BE THE LAST OF THE SEASON.

I EAN, THAT MIGHT BE OPTIMISTIC, BUT THOSE ARE PROFESSIONAL METEOROLOGISTS.

AND WE KNOW THEY HAVE -- WHAT WE KNOW THEY HAVE RIGHT, A REAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR IRE IS GREENING UP OF THE LANDSCAPE.

ONCE YOU GET PLANTS TURNING GREEN, NOW YOU HAVE MOISTURE IN THE VEGETATION AND THAT CAN REDUCE THE ABILITY TO BURN AND IT KIND OF SLOWS THINGS DOWN FOR BURNING.

SO THERE'S SORT OF A RACE BETWEEN HOW LONG WE'RE HOT AND DRY AND WINDY VERSUS WHEN THE GREEN-UP OCCURS.

WE'RE RIGHT AT KIND OF THE STARTING POINT, FINISH LINE AREA RIGHT NOW.

SO WE'LL SEE.

BUT IT LOOKS LIKE, AT LEAST ACCORDING TO FORECASTS, THIS IS A STORMY WEEKEND COMING UP, AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

>> Cathy: OKAY.

THAT SOUNDS INTERESTING.

>> Eric: THANKS FOR COMING DOWN.